Has Palin Already Backfired for McCain?
James Hanley on Sep 4th 2008
Of course it’s impossible to judge the ultimate effect of this type of political event in real time, which is why pundits–which I seem to have become–are so often wrong. But Obama’s campaign raised between $8 and 10 million just in the 24 hours following Palin’s speech, equalling in one day what the Republicans claim to have raised in the week since Palin was announced as the veep nominee. Given that Obama’s fundraising kicked into high gear after her speech, rather than after she was introduced, I’d say the nastiness Jason and I both sensed was sensed by a goodly number of others (note: I wasn’t moved to contribute to anyone except my local beer distributor).
No doubt she’s energized the Republican base, but she’s been a great energizer for the Democrats, too, which I don’t think is what McCain had in mind when he picked her.
As I said, judging these things in real time is tricky. It’s possible Palin has the charm to bring in enough voters to help McCain win a couple of key swing states. But I have a feeling in my gut that I’m watching a slow-motion train wreck, the unfolding of a classic political blunder that we’ll be talking about for years to come.
Filed in The Barracks
I’m not so sure its a blunder, I think there’s a method to McCain’s madness.
I think McCain’s concluded that this election is about Obama, if Obama wins enough attention and support he will win, if not McCain wins by default.
Plain will attract a lot of media attention, which draws that attention from Obama.
If the VP has little effect on voting then it doesn’t matter if she does good things or bad things, all she has to do is thrash around and take the spotlight off Obama.
Effectively she’s a political chaff launcher.
“No doubt she’s energized the Republican base, but she’s been a great energizer for the Democrats, too…”
That democratic ‘energy’ is panic. Palin is a game changer. Since Palin’s speech at least one poll shows McCain and Obama tied. And she’s appealing to the key group, independents. Basically it’s over for Obama.
Vann,
What’s your evidence that she’s appealing to independents? So far I have seen nothing that shows what her appeal has been to that group. Keep in mind I’m an independent voter, and I find her appalling. But then I know I’m not too representative of independents as a whole.
And even if the Dems response is panic, if it helps them keep out-fundraising it keeps strengthening one of their advantages this time around. If I were a Republican, I wouldn’t be quite so confident about it being game over. If you are a Republican–which I don’t know that you are–keep in mind that you aren’t seeing this from the same angle as independents.
I’m not sure it can be considered a blunder. In particular, I’m not really sure what you have in mind as the contrast case here: McCain picking a running mate that no one found interesting at all would itself be a blunder, since it would waste a good opportunity, but any running mate that would really excite Republicans would be bound to appall Democrats.
I don’t know if James K is right, but I do find it interesting that suddenly everyone has started talking as if Obama is running against Palin, leaving McCain to position himself as Presidential while Obama, in effect, has to show that he wouldn’t be inferior to Palin as Vice President; you see this most noticeably in the long arguments-of-attrition that have sprung up about whether Palin or Obama is more ‘experienced’.
I think James Hanley is right, though, that Palin won’t move independents. In fact, I doubt there will be much moving in this election; this election, like so many in recent years, will be entirely a question of how much each party can get its people enthusiastic enough (or worried enough) actually to vote.
Well she really brings out the religious right, but its not like Obama was counting their votes to begin with. So she is only energizing people who always vote republican, but otherwise might have stayed home. I don’t know any women that are going to vote republican just to have a woman VP. All I see is that her far right positions on abortion, climate change, and energy policy has pretty much destroyed any question of the McCain ticket being the “maverick” choice, especially as far as independents are concerned. She has some ability in her speeches, but there is a reason they aren’t having her give interviews and go out to town hall meetings. I think James K is correct, right now the republicans are just using her to soak up media attention, but after a while she is going to have to talk to somebody.
In the long run I don’t think it will matter, the debates (or town halls or whatever) are going to seal it for obama. I think a lack of enthusiasm from the larger republican base, combined with many repubs going over to vote for obama, and the large number of black and hispanic voters in certain parts of the country, will cause some surprise swing states in November. Particularly in the south and southwest.