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	<title>Comments on: Ron Paul in Iowa: Dollars &#38; Cents Challenge Wisdom of Pollsters</title>
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	<link>http://www.positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html</link>
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	<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 06:41:23 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Greyson</title>
		<link>http://www.positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-522466</link>
		<dc:creator>Greyson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:54:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-522466</guid>
		<description>Great work everyone, all this information within a day of posting... You all must be some of the Ron-Paul-Internet-Robots that I keep hearing about...  So who wants to bet that Fox News only shows the top two finishers tonight?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Great work everyone, all this information within a day of posting&#8230; You all must be some of the Ron-Paul-Internet-Robots that I keep hearing about&#8230;  So who wants to bet that Fox News only shows the top two finishers tonight?</p>
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		<title>By: James</title>
		<link>http://www.positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-522455</link>
		<dc:creator>James</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:14:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-522455</guid>
		<description>Hilary looks like the cranky old lady who's always calling the cops to complain about noise or weeds instead of being polite and letting me know directly.

As for Ron Paul's supporters in Iowa: good luck turning the corporate news machine on its ear!  It can be done, and you can do it!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hilary looks like the cranky old lady who&#8217;s always calling the cops to complain about noise or weeds instead of being polite and letting me know directly.</p>
<p>As for Ron Paul&#8217;s supporters in Iowa: good luck turning the corporate news machine on its ear!  It can be done, and you can do it!</p>
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		<title>By: Darren Greway</title>
		<link>http://www.positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521912</link>
		<dc:creator>Darren Greway</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Jan 2008 04:21:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521912</guid>
		<description>Very encouraging for Paul. We'll know on January 3rd whether this donor/voter pattern is a reliable indicator or just a general correlation. Would you be willing to give us an update of the actual ratios for each candidate after the caucus? You could estimate donor numbers for the other candidates by extrapolating from their Q3 reports.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Very encouraging for Paul. We&#8217;ll know on January 3rd whether this donor/voter pattern is a reliable indicator or just a general correlation. Would you be willing to give us an update of the actual ratios for each candidate after the caucus? You could estimate donor numbers for the other candidates by extrapolating from their Q3 reports.</p>
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		<title>By: Will T</title>
		<link>http://www.positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521712</link>
		<dc:creator>Will T</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jan 2008 23:10:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521712</guid>
		<description>From the Federal Election Commission (via OpenSecrests.org), these are the results from 2000:

Candidate	Votes	 (%)	Donors	  (%)	Voters per donor
Bush 	           35,231   41	     492      53%	 72
Forbes 	          26,198   30	      85	9%	308
Keyes 	          12,268   14	    144	      15%	85
Bauer 	            7,323     9	      112	12%	  65
McCain 	           4,045     5	       92	10%	  44
Hatch 	               882     1	 10	    1%	     88
     Total	    85,947		935		

Note: Steve Forbes is very wealthy and funded his own campaign.

If Ron Paul is more bark than bite and generates half of McCain's voter/donor ratio (44/2 = 22) and 1% of donors come from Iowa (~1300 donors from Q2-Q4 of 2007) then 28,600 votes will be generated.  If 100k voters caucus Republican then that is 28% of the vote.  Add to the mix neocons and ballot fraud against Paul and Paul's votes go down 10% to 26% of the total.

Romney is at 31%, Huckster at 28% and you can see how Paul can surprise everyone by finishing 3rd in Iowa!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From the Federal Election Commission (via OpenSecrests.org), these are the results from 2000:</p>
<p>Candidate	Votes	 (%)	Donors	  (%)	Voters per donor<br />
Bush 	           35,231   41	     492      53%	 72<br />
Forbes 	          26,198   30	      85	9%	308<br />
Keyes 	          12,268   14	    144	      15%	85<br />
Bauer 	            7,323     9	      112	12%	  65<br />
McCain 	           4,045     5	       92	10%	  44<br />
Hatch 	               882     1	 10	    1%	     88<br />
     Total	    85,947		935		</p>
<p>Note: Steve Forbes is very wealthy and funded his own campaign.</p>
<p>If Ron Paul is more bark than bite and generates half of McCain&#8217;s voter/donor ratio (44/2 = 22) and 1% of donors come from Iowa (~1300 donors from Q2-Q4 of 2007) then 28,600 votes will be generated.  If 100k voters caucus Republican then that is 28% of the vote.  Add to the mix neocons and ballot fraud against Paul and Paul&#8217;s votes go down 10% to 26% of the total.</p>
<p>Romney is at 31%, Huckster at 28% and you can see how Paul can surprise everyone by finishing 3rd in Iowa!</p>
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		<title>By: rhys</title>
		<link>http://www.positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521645</link>
		<dc:creator>rhys</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jan 2008 21:39:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521645</guid>
		<description>"...I don’t see it taking into account is the Democrats and Independents that are surely giving that might not take part in the voting." -FlSean

In Iowa, you can change your party affiliation at the caucus. I don't think that there is a greater chance for Democrats and Independents to give to a Paul campaign and not show, than for Republicans to give to a campaign and not show. But even if this were so, in 2004, Kucinich received money from about 50 people yet drew 1500 votes. That's 30 voters per doner. And this was in a contest were the front-runner, Dean, failed to place first or second, and Kucinich languished in the polls (i.e. never even had a shot). 

When Paul draws 30 voters per doner, that will be 36,000 voters. The Democrats that I know that support Paul, have already changed their party, and feel that there is not a big difference between the Democrat front-runners, and the polls in IA seem to support that. The three front-runners are tied not because of a great inter-party struggle, but because they are all the same. The Republican Party has a much more interesting contest because of Paul. Watch the independent and Democrat voters flock to the GOP to, if nothing else, teach Republicans a lesson. As a life-long Republican and anti-corporatist, I welcome Democrat support for the conservative Paul. 

It's hard to imagine a situation where Paul fails to achieve third - most of his supporters would walk through a blizzard for the honor of caucusing/voting for him; the caucus is early on a work night; and Kansas is playing in the Orange Bowl on caucus night starting at exactly the same time as caucus events - 7:00pm Central.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;&#8230;I don’t see it taking into account is the Democrats and Independents that are surely giving that might not take part in the voting.&#8221; -FlSean</p>
<p>In Iowa, you can change your party affiliation at the caucus. I don&#8217;t think that there is a greater chance for Democrats and Independents to give to a Paul campaign and not show, than for Republicans to give to a campaign and not show. But even if this were so, in 2004, Kucinich received money from about 50 people yet drew 1500 votes. That&#8217;s 30 voters per doner. And this was in a contest were the front-runner, Dean, failed to place first or second, and Kucinich languished in the polls (i.e. never even had a shot). </p>
<p>When Paul draws 30 voters per doner, that will be 36,000 voters. The Democrats that I know that support Paul, have already changed their party, and feel that there is not a big difference between the Democrat front-runners, and the polls in IA seem to support that. The three front-runners are tied not because of a great inter-party struggle, but because they are all the same. The Republican Party has a much more interesting contest because of Paul. Watch the independent and Democrat voters flock to the GOP to, if nothing else, teach Republicans a lesson. As a life-long Republican and anti-corporatist, I welcome Democrat support for the conservative Paul. </p>
<p>It&#8217;s hard to imagine a situation where Paul fails to achieve third - most of his supporters would walk through a blizzard for the honor of caucusing/voting for him; the caucus is early on a work night; and Kansas is playing in the Orange Bowl on caucus night starting at exactly the same time as caucus events - 7:00pm Central.</p>
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		<title>By: Jim Babka</title>
		<link>http://www.positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521641</link>
		<dc:creator>Jim Babka</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jan 2008 21:21:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521641</guid>
		<description>Douglas, I didn't mean for my comment about RonPaulGraphs.com to sound derogatory. I love what he's done and it was very helpful in writing this post. Thanks for explaining how it works.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Douglas, I didn&#8217;t mean for my comment about RonPaulGraphs.com to sound derogatory. I love what he&#8217;s done and it was very helpful in writing this post. Thanks for explaining how it works.</p>
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		<title>By: Douglas</title>
		<link>http://www.positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521631</link>
		<dc:creator>Douglas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jan 2008 21:11:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521631</guid>
		<description>Meant to say that donations were coming in at a pace of 1,000's of donors an hour.

Here's another site that shows the donation rates on the moneybomb days:

http://paulcash.slact.net/November-5th/
http://paulcash.slact.net/December-16th/

Up over 3,000 ppl/hr much of the evening.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Meant to say that donations were coming in at a pace of 1,000&#8217;s of donors an hour.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s another site that shows the donation rates on the moneybomb days:</p>
<p><a href="http://paulcash.slact.net/November-5th/" rel="nofollow">http://paulcash.slact.net/November-5th/</a><br />
<a href="http://paulcash.slact.net/December-16th/" rel="nofollow">http://paulcash.slact.net/December-16th/</a></p>
<p>Up over 3,000 ppl/hr much of the evening.</p>
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		<title>By: Douglas</title>
		<link>http://www.positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521618</link>
		<dc:creator>Douglas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jan 2008 21:03:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521618</guid>
		<description>"RonPaulGraphs.com shows unique donors captured from the official Ron Paul campaign web service. I don’t understand how their system works. For some reason their numbers are not comprehensive."

The maker of RonPaulGraphs.com is monitoring the feed that the Ron Paul website puts out to drive that donation widget you see on their front page. It is constantly putting out the latest donation total as well as the last 10 or so donors(with state).

The reason it isn't comprehensive is that on the money-bomb days, people were donating at a pace of 100's of donors an hour. Therefore if more than 10 come in a minute, those extra donor names will likely get lost.

Still a pretty cool website the guy did just tapping into the public donation data feed. Has nothing to do with the campaign whatsoever.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;RonPaulGraphs.com shows unique donors captured from the official Ron Paul campaign web service. I don’t understand how their system works. For some reason their numbers are not comprehensive.&#8221;</p>
<p>The maker of RonPaulGraphs.com is monitoring the feed that the Ron Paul website puts out to drive that donation widget you see on their front page. It is constantly putting out the latest donation total as well as the last 10 or so donors(with state).</p>
<p>The reason it isn&#8217;t comprehensive is that on the money-bomb days, people were donating at a pace of 100&#8217;s of donors an hour. Therefore if more than 10 come in a minute, those extra donor names will likely get lost.</p>
<p>Still a pretty cool website the guy did just tapping into the public donation data feed. Has nothing to do with the campaign whatsoever.</p>
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		<title>By: carlos</title>
		<link>http://www.positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521615</link>
		<dc:creator>carlos</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jan 2008 20:53:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521615</guid>
		<description>wtf? hillary does not in ANY way equal a motherly type. are you fu@#$ing crazy ? or do you just not really look at peoples political aspirations bfore deciding? Mrs. Clinton is a warmongering, liar. ys I said liar. type "hillary liar" into youtube and you will have audio proof. come on  Deco!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>wtf? hillary does not in ANY way equal a motherly type. are you fu@#$ing crazy ? or do you just not really look at peoples political aspirations bfore deciding? Mrs. Clinton is a warmongering, liar. ys I said liar. type &#8220;hillary liar&#8221; into youtube and you will have audio proof. come on  Deco!</p>
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		<title>By: JP</title>
		<link>http://www.positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521586</link>
		<dc:creator>JP</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jan 2008 20:30:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521586</guid>
		<description>-Deco
   Your motherly figure wants to take care of all of us. Sounds nice but how can she do it? We will gave to give up much (money, choices...)

Sounds like socialism to me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>-Deco<br />
   Your motherly figure wants to take care of all of us. Sounds nice but how can she do it? We will gave to give up much (money, choices&#8230;)</p>
<p>Sounds like socialism to me.</p>
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		<title>By: FlSean</title>
		<link>http://www.positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521393</link>
		<dc:creator>FlSean</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jan 2008 16:18:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521393</guid>
		<description>This is very interesting, but the only thing that I don't see it taking into account is the Democrats and Independents that are surely giving that might not take part in the voting.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is very interesting, but the only thing that I don&#8217;t see it taking into account is the Democrats and Independents that are surely giving that might not take part in the voting.</p>
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		<title>By: Deco</title>
		<link>http://www.positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521391</link>
		<dc:creator>Deco</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jan 2008 16:11:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://positiveliberty.com/2008/01/ron-paul-in-iowa-dollars-cents-challenge-wisdom-of-pollsters.html#comment-521391</guid>
		<description>I'm voting for Mrs. Clinton she looks like she could be the mom next door. We need a motherly figure in the whitehouse for a nice change.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m voting for Mrs. Clinton she looks like she could be the mom next door. We need a motherly figure in the whitehouse for a nice change.</p>
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