Positive Liberty

Note: This is my first blog post at Positive Liberty. I’m a fan of the guys here, and thus, obviously, quite thrilled to be included. Generally, a new blogger would write their first post about who they are. But that idea sounds only slightly more interesting than watching your neighbor’s slide show titled, “What we did on our summer vacation.” So, I’m just diving in. You’ll get to know me over time, and you’ll like me ;-)

Ron Paul is the GOP’s best hope of winning in November, 2008.

Rudy Guiliani, Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Fred Thompson can’t win. I doubt Mike Huckabee could either, though he at least has a personality that could work for him (there’s something in the water in Hope, Arkansas).

But none of the aforementioned “leaders” have distanced themselves from The Decider. And that is their Achilles Heel.

Hypothesis: The major party nominee who is perceived by the public to be the most likely to bring the troops home from Iraq (and potentially Iran by that point) the fastest, will win.

By default, that means a Democratic victory — unless Ron Paul is the nominee.

Republicans prattle endlessly about how Hillary has high negatives. It’s false comfort and they know it. But the beam is in their own eye. Guiliani is peaking amongst security fetishists in the GOP base. He is at the zenith of the politics of fear. Fear of terrorist boogeymen has probably attracted all the adherents it ever will, unless a nuke gets denotated in one of our cities (a very unlikely occurrence, unless Pakistan falls into the hands of Muslim extremists).

You only vote for Guiliani if you believe that war mongering is a fantastic policy. That’s great if he wants a show on FoxNews after his campaign is over, but it won’t win him the Presidency.

Now, it’s a well-established fact that politicians aren’t leaders; they’re responders. And they’re usually the last to know about any significant trend. They only embrace a trend at ubiquity.

More and more people are saying, “I am not afraid.” They’re exhausted by fear-mongering; tired of losing their civil liberties. They’re starting to put things in perspective.

Here’s another trend — more than 70% of Americans believe the troops should be brought home. Does that mean the remaining 30% believe that war mongering is a fantastic policy?

Democrats aren’t much better at recognizing this trend. They’ve done next to nothing about bringing the troops home because they lack a profile in courage. They’re waiting for ubiquity.

Voters are frustrated. And candidates like Hillary Clinton are trying to have it both ways. So only Ron Paul can have his cake — and eat Hillary’s too.

Now, I’m not guaranteeing Ron Paul could or would win. Every candidate has his weakness. He hasn’t been put through the Media crucible yet. What they build up, they always bring down. Paul is enjoying the beginnings of a warm relationship with coverage he probably didn’t even dream of when he started this venture. But like the scorpion, the Media will sting him. It’s their nature. And when they do, he too might have high negatives and be unelectable. Time will tell.

But for now, the Republicans, such as the obnoxious, frat boys at RedState {no link provided, on purpose}, would do well to stop censoring him. They might find he’s the long lost Jedi of Republican politics — that he’s their only hope.

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