In the current issue of Cato Unbound, Jim Manzi and Joseph Romm have both weighed in on global warming. In the next few days we’ll hear from Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger, as well as Indur Goklany. And then the real fun — the discussion phase — will begin.
Yes, we invited Joseph Romm. Yes, the guy who runs Climate Progress. To celebrate the appearance of his dire global warming predictions in a Cato publication, Romm’s Climate Progress blog ran a picture of hell freezing over.
As managing editor, it was a proud moment for me. Vigorous debate is what Cato Unbound is all about.
Yet not a lot has happened to change my own mind on the issue, which is to say that I don’t feel I grasp the science sufficiently to have a strong opinion. Although Manzi’s lead essay generally sidesteps the science and gives more attention to the political and economic aspects of the problem, Romm has made some pretty strong assertions about the data, and it seems like that’s where the conversation is headed. At least for now. But I shall say no more.
Where do I stand? Every time I read the “facts” from the go-slow keep-calm folks, I feel like they win. And every time I read the “facts” from the act-now save-the-world people, I feel pulled equally in the opposite direction. Often I don’t know how to evaluate the competing claims about the issues of fact, and this prevents me from having many strongly held views on the subject.
The one thing I am convinced of is as follows: If I don’t know whom to believe — or whom to dare to believe — then there’s a good chance that the vast majority of voters and policymakers don’t either. Instead, as I’ve noted in the past, we tell each other stories. This is a natural human tendency, though not necessarily a helpful one.
Here are some of the stories we tell:
Industrialists are Evil: By this narrative, big corporations don’t care anything about the environment, or animals, or plants, or human beings, either. They’d be perfectly content, not merely to deprive of property, but actually to kill off everyone who lived on the coasts of the world, if only it meant a few more dollars in their bank accounts. We have to shut them down immediately. . . .
Scientists are Heroes: This narrative often squares well with the previous, though they need not be found together. A bunch of heroic scientists discovered something that’s threatening worldwide destruction. We’re still threatened, but — if we act in time — we can still do something. . . .
So who wouldn’t want to get in on saving the world? It feels so good to be able to do something like that, whether or not there’s any actual threat to be had — which, I’d venture to say, most climate-change true believers couldn’t competently assess even if they had the data right in front of them.
And so on. These, I think, rather than scientific knowledge, are what impel most people to think what they do about global warming. Many of the people who would most vigorously assent to economically ruinous global warming policies certainly seem to be more motivated by narrative than by science. I’m not saying this of Romm, but the number of people I’ve talked to who don’t know hooey about the science, but who enjoy the thought of seeing Exxon suffer, is great enough that it ought to be cause for concern.
Libertarians aren’t immune from using narratives, not at all. We do tend to reach for different narratives than most, however, and I’m going to bring up one of them that seems particularly relevant, as well as particularly well-validated. This is that plans for the future are almost always garbage. Socialist economic planning is a joke. Government war plans? Same thing. Businesses are hardly any better, and for every successful product on the market, there are dozens of failures. The law of unintended consequences makes a ruin of everything sooner or later, and that’s just the nature of life on earth.
Climate forecasting seems every bit as difficult as planning an economy, and perhaps more. Our knowledge is smaller than we dare to admit.
This is one reason for our gut-level skepticism about what life is going to be like in 2100, and why we need to take these particular steps today. We libertarians have watched, with distinct satisfaction, as one set of planners after another have all failed, catastrophically, time and again. We’ve been in the right, even when no one gives us proper credit. This stuff? It looks for all the world like a Five Year Plan to us. And we know how those turn out.
“Communists couldn’t plan the economy,” say today’s planners. “In fact, they made a total botch of it. So instead, we’re going to plan a whole lot of the economy and the climate too.” I hope you’ll forgive me for shuddering.